Saturday, July 20, 2019

What if one or more of our crisis lies with our neighboring countries?

Ethiopia has never applied competent diplomacy with our neighbor countries. As a country we had wars, conflicts with little interest to express constructive interest for bilateral relations with our neighbors. Instead there were much exposures to be foreign dependency for military and economic assistants that never helped our country. " Since the time of Dr Abiy it looks there is an interest of openness to our neighbor countries: Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea while Djibouti and Kenya have been closer neighbors. Peaceful and bilateral co-existence with neighboring countries has to be every country's primary goal in foreign relations. To make the matter more important Ethiopia is a source of all the needs of water for the entire peoples of at least two countries. Blue Nile river is a big geo politics for centuries between Ethiopia and Egypt and later Sudan as it got our of colonialism. Such geo politics goes as back as the twelfth century CE that Christian Ethiopian kings have warned Egyptian sultans of their power to divert waters of the Nile, often in response to religious conflicts as just means to cause fearing. At the time of Emperor Yohannes IV as the he pleaded with British to stop to be allied with Egypt he thought they would accept but instead the British would not stop the Khedive of Egypt and he gathered his armies and marched to meet the Egyptian force. The two armies met at Gundit on November 16, 1875. Through the war the entire Egyptian force and European officers killed. This would be the first geo-politic war for Egyptian to control Blue Nile source.

A new Egyptian force was assembled and sent to avenge the defeat at Gundat. The Egyptians were defeated again at the Battle of Gura on March 7 - 9, 1876 by the Emperor and his loyal general Ras Alula Engida. After Emperor Yohannes signed a treaty with the British at Adwa known as the Hewett treaty for the evacuation of the Egyptian soldiers through his land the Mahdiyah fell upon Ethiopia. Ras Alula Defeated an invading Mahdist army at the Battle of Kufit on September 23, 1885 about the same time Italians took control of Massawa as a new colonial Entry. After he tried to crush Gojjam and Shewa rebellions the Mahdist forces had entered Gondar burning holy churches. The Emperor marched north and confronted the Mahdi. While fighting the Emperor was hit by a bullet that caused him to die. That was the Ethiopian Army was almost to win the Mahdists. As the death of the King heard the Ethiopians forces started to scatter allowing the Mahdists to counterattack scattering the Ethiopian forces.

At the time of Emperor Menelik there was a treaty between Ethiopia and Great Britain. In 1902 Ethiopia's Emperor Menelik and United Kingadom's envoy Lt Col. John Lane Harringron in Addis Ababa. Egypt and Sudan were colonies of UK. Article III of the 5 articles say:
His Majesty the Emperor Menelik II, King of Kings if Ethiopia, engages himself towards the Government of His Britanic Majesty no to construct, any work across the Blue Nile, Lake Tana, or the Sobat which would arrest the flow of their water into the Nile except in agreement with His Britanic Majesty's government and the government of Sudan.

Later 1 year before Emperor Haile Sellasie was to be coronated in 1929 colonial document established Egypt right to 48 billion cubic meters of water flow, all dry season waters. In a later agreement of 1959 allocated 55.5. billion cubic meters of water allocated to Egypt and Sudan was allowed 18.5 billion cubic meters.

Ethiopia at the time of Emperor Haile Selassie commissioned a study to examine the feasibility of constructing dams around the Blue Nile. A report written by the U.S. Department of Reclamation extended for 17 volumes and was published in 1964.
 Sooner from this period Ethiopia had a period of threat of drought and famine which also loomed when Aswan Dam turbines nearly shut down raising the prospect of food and water shortages in the country. At those same periods Ethiopia started to have also political unrest finally ending the Emperor's reign in 1974 in military coup.  In the times of Derg Ethiopia did not have progressive neighboring country relation including Sudan and Egypt despite Derg did took other Hydro Electric dam projects other than Blue Nile river. When TPLF took power it was a new political order changing the country's one Ethiopia system through ethnically federated regions called "Killil". Since the formation of Killils Ethiopia has been in series of Ethnic unrest in causing many internal refuge crisis probably as a global level human crisis this this days.

In 2011 after the Killil system formation the popular President Meles ordered on the commencement of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The eventual site for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was identified by the United States Bureau of Reclamation during a Blue Nile survey conducted between 1956 and 1964. When President Meles was interviewed by an Egyptian journalist for why Ethiopia has not taken a mutual decision on this dam? his answer briefly was like "the 1959 agreement benefited only Egypt and Sudan the other seven countries were not recognized." In 2011 AlJazeera news site there was a news saying Ethiopia PM warns of Nile war saying Egypt could not win a war over the Nile rive and accused Cairo of supporting his country's rebels. In Amharic news site of deutsche welle in 2013 reported that a high level Saudi officer warned that because of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Egypt and Sudan would be exposed in to water shortage.

As water as resource is a life line primarily for for agriculture and drinking and later power source it has been a crisis in rivers of various countries countries across the world. For example Jordan river basin shared by Jordan, Israel, the Palestinians, Syria and Lebanon. Jordanians don’t need scientists to tell them that they live in one of the world’s driest countries in the center of the planet’s most water-poor region. So peaceful agreement of the usage of this river by the countries becomes vital.

One article from a site named tigraionline titled "Who could possibly be behind the assassinations of General Seare Mekonnen and Major General Gezae Abera?" cited that by asking "How did we get to where we are today?" saying the civil unrest it mentions: "When Meles declared the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project, he should have ensured the political space was conducive for all players to prevent a formidable enemy, Egypt, the opportunity to interfere in the country’s internal affairs to fulfil its strategy of scuppering the GERD...." linking all these crisis followed there after.

In constructive way a treaty between the United States of America and Canada concerning uses of the waters of the Niagara River was signed at Washington on February 27, 1950 by their respective plenipotentiaries, the original of which treaty is word for word as follows:
The United States of America and Canada, recognizing their primary obligation to preserve and enhance the scenic beauty of the Niagara Falls and River and, consistent with that obligation, their common interest in providing for the most beneficial use of the waters of that River. With other additional agreements.

Concerning our country in the Amhara and Benshangual-Gumuz regions in the future time of urban and any other developments with population increases I would suggest on setting up of permanent multi natural resource conservation work forces to be set up from Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt that investigate and plan the conservation of the Nile basin which works with their three governments, UN and OAU.